Judgement Day-Sizing Up the Game of the Century

Will the Buckeyes prevail, or will Michigan have the final verdict?



It’s finally here. No more waiting, my football friends. No more “we’re playing Northwestern this week” quotes from the players. #1 Ohio State (11-0) vs. #2 Michigan (11-0). It’s all on the table: Big Ten Championship, National Championship, and the bragging rights that come with winning the biggest game in the history of sports’ greatest rivalry. It has always been one of the fiercest- Michigan fans and Ohio State fans are already going at it in March (just ask the high school seniors who don’t watch football), and the intensity builds all the way up to that glorious third Saturday in November. Fans can’t even agree on a name for the rivalry. Buckeye fans call it the Ohio State-Michigan game, while Maize and Blue faithful call it the Michigan-Ohio State game. Those of us who have at least a small spirit of compromise simply call it “The Game”. Michigan and Ohio State. Ohio State and Michigan. THE Game. That’s all you need to say. And for those of you who are college football-informed, this is the semifinals of the playoff so many people have argued for. It’s on the line. The loser leaves brokenhearted, while the victor moves on for a chance at a national championship. It doesn’t get any better than this. On to the analysis of the 103rd installment of the greatest rivalry in sports:

Ohio State Rush Offense vs. Michigan Rush Defense
Ohio State’s Antonio Pittman is quietly having another solid year. After rushing for over 1,000 yards this season, the junior tailback has crossed that milestone again this season with 1,032 yards on 214 carries. He has preformed admirably in the shadow of two Heisman candidates this year- often having his best performances when quarterback Troy Smith struggles. True freshman Chris Wells, a bruising back who can move the pile, is having a great season for anyone, especially a freshman, scoring six touchdowns. But unless Pittman or Wells has the game of his life, there won’t be much room to run against Michigan’s front seven - the #1 rush defense in the country in statistics (30.0 yards per game on the ground) and reality. The Wolverines’ interior run defense is as stout as they come ( and I mean STOUT- the combined weight of defensive tackles Terrance Taylor and Alan Branch is 635 pounds, Branch being a 6-6, 335 pound monster who is agile enough to have played end a year ago). Pittman or true freshman Chris Wells probably won’t have much more success on the outside either. Linebackers Prescott Burgess and Shawn Crable are mohawk-sporting, run-stuffing, and quarterback-punishing athletes who are very quick sideline to sideline. Also, both of these young men are former Ohio high school stars who would love nothing more than to beat their chief rivals in Columbus. Middle linebacker David Harris has racked up 80 tackles, 63 of them being solo tackles, and his impact on this defense goes far beyond statistics, as former Buckeye great Chris Spielman called him the country’s best linebacker. The biggest test for the Wolverine run defense will come from quarterback Troy Smith, who has dominated Michigan each of the past two years. But this Michigan defense is a confident an talented group and first-year defensive coordinator Ron English has brought a swagger to the defense that, when combined with the physical abilities of the players and a great package (finally), is unrivaled in the rest of college football. So don’t expect the Buckeyes to be able to run effectively, that is, unless they pass effectively first.

Advantage: Michigan
Key Matchup: Michigan seniors vs. History. The seniors on this Michigan defense, Lamarr Woodley, Rondell Biggs, David Harris, Prescott Burgess, Leon Hall, and Willis Barringer remember all too well the success of Troy Smith against Michigan over the past two seasons. Can Michigan overcome that bad history and finally stop a running quarterback, specifically Troy Smith? This is they’re biggest opportunity to get that monkey off their back and prove that they really are a different defense.

Ohio State Pass Offense vs. Michigan Pass Defense
The Buckeye’s passing game is nowhere near the top statistically, but it may be the most effective in the nation. Quarterback Troy Smith is the best in college football at spreading the ball around, and he has an embarrassment of riches downfield in wide receivers Anthony Gonzalez and Ted Ginn Jr. Gonzalez and Ginn have combined for 13 touchdown receptions this season, while almost dead even in every statistical category. Everyone knows about Ginn’s explosive speed and amazing talent, but most Buckeye fans think Gonzalez is a better pure receiver.
When coupled with Smith’s good decision-making (just 4 interceptions) and pinpoint accuracy (66.4 completion percentage), and the contributions of Brian Robiske and others, the Ohio State passing game is sometimes impossible to stop- exhibit A being the Texas game, where Smith shredded the Longhorn secondary for 269 yards and two touchdowns. Will Michigan be able to are better than their fellow Big Ten teams at slowing down Troy’s Boys? If they expect to win, they might have to. Cornerback Leon Hall is having an All-American worthy year with three interceptions, and he holds the school record for career pass break-ups with 43- quite an accomplishment when one considers that Ty Law, Charles Woodson, and Marlin Jackson all played at Michigan. Teams have hardly thrown Hall’s way this season, but expect the Buckeyes to take their chances if Hall is isolated with Ginn, Gonzalez, or Robiske an the outside. Sophomore Morgan Trent, a high school track star, may be the guy to go up against the speed of Ginn, while Hall would likely cover the more technically sound Gonzalez. Michigan boasts the Big Ten’s best pass rush and one of the nation’s most explosive front seven. They lead the nation in sacks with 41, and they boast the Big Ten’s top pass rusher, Lamarr Woodley, who has 11 sacks for a loss of 111 combined yards, and who also has the Michigan single-season sack record of twelve within reach. When combined with Branch(2 sacks), Taylor(1 sack), Tim Jamsion(6 sacks), Rondell Biggs(5 sacks), Shawn Crable(6 sacks), and Prescott Burgess (3 sacks), there is probably no better unit at getting after the quarterback. But there is probably no better unit than throwing the football than Ohio State, and Troy Smith’s mobility is what beat Michigan last year. Remember, it was Troy Smith’s arm that beat Michigan last year. With the secondary being Michigan’s biggest relative weakness on this veteran defense, the Buckeyes will throw the ball effectively.

Advantage: Ohio State
Key Matchup: Morgan Trent vs. Ted Ginn Jr. Both have great speed. Both are in positions they didn’t play in high school. And The Game may rest on their performances. Ginn’s ability to get open (or a lack of it) will be paramount in Saturday’s game.

Michigan’s Rush Offense vs. Ohio State’s Rush Defense
If there is any questions as to why Michigan is so much better this year as opposed to last year’s 7-5 squad, much of the answer comes in running back Mike Hart. Injured for the majority of 2005, Hart missed seven games a year ago, including most of the Ohio State game. Now, Mike Hart is fully healthy and thriving in Michigan’s new zone blocking scheme. Leading the nation in carries with 278 and fourth nationally with 1,373 yards, Hart has been very dependable this season, never goes down on first contact, and hasn’t lost a fumble since his first game his freshman year. Sophomore Kevin Grady and freshman Brandon Minor have shown flashes of ability, but neither will get substantial playing time against the Buckeyes with a healthy Mike Hart. Ohio State’s rush defense, although nowhere near the level of last year’s unit, has improved dramatically since the beginning of the season. Linebacker James Laurinitis has almost made Buckeye fans forget about A.J. Hawk with his 91 tackles and three forced fumbles, and defensive tackle Vernon Gholston has been a disrupter in the middle, leading the team with 14 tackles for loss. Because of the physical nature of the Buckeye’s defensive front, Michigan will have to convert some third downs through the air. Despite this, Michigan’s line is talented and experienced, and anchored by a 6-7 315 pound left tackle in Jake Long. This Michigan line remembers the struggle of the last two years for Mike Hart and the Wolverines’ running game, and they don’t want that bad taste in their mouth this year. So if you were to ask me who I would take on fourth-and-goal on the one with the game on the line, I would probably take Michigan with their run-to-the-whistle Mike Hart.

Advantage: Michigan
Key Matchup: Michigan O-line vs. Ohio State D-line. Three years ago, Michigan’s line dominated, and the Wolverines won. Each of the past two seasons, the Buckeye’s have overpowered the Michigan line, both games Buckeye victories. Also, Michigan is 17-1 when Hart gains 100 yards or more on the ground. I think you can probably see where I am going with this. The winner of this matchup will likely win the game.




Michigan Pass Offense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
Michigan’s quarterback Chad Henne doesn’t have the razzle-dazzle of Troy Smith, or the big numbers of Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn, but he has a stronger arm than either of them is very similar. Henne, a junior, has all the physical tools to make him a top NFL prospect, but his recent development as a vocal leader of the team has made him even more valuable. Don’t expect this ice-blooded competitor to be rattled by the big game atmosphere in the Horseshoe, either. He’s played there before (throwing for 328 yards and two touchdowns) and has played in the Big Ten rowdiest stadiums such as Penn State and Iowa- and won both games. Much has been made of Ohio State’s receivers, and rightfully so, but Michigan has very similar depth. Adrian Arrington is a solid possession guy, and Mario Manningham is a legitimate deep threat who can regularly beat single coverages. He is also a touchdown machine, tied for the conference lead with Indiana’s James Hardy in touchdowns with nine, despite missing five games with a knee injury. “Super Mario” is now fully healthy and ready to go, though don’t be surprised if he’s not the same player he was at the beginning of the year. Steve Breaston finally had a breakout game last week against Indiana with 3 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown, and then returned a punt 83 yards for another score. Although not as polished a receiver as Ginn, Gonzalez, or Manningham, Breaston is still a threat to be taken into account. The Ohio State pass defense, losing every player from last year’s secondary and linebacker corps, has overachieved all year. They have been unbelievably good this season- intercepting 21 passes and returning 4 for touchdowns. They are easily the Big Ten’s top unit against the pass, and perhaps one of the nation’s best. Sophomore corner Malcom Jenkins is as good a cover corner as there is, while the other corner, Antonio Smith, has been a very pleasant surprise this year for Buckeye fans. Linebacker James Laurinitis is a monster at forcing turnovers, intercepting a conference high 5 passes. With Henne’s tendency to let go of two or three absolutely awful passes a game, the Buckeye’s ability to force turnovers will be interesting to watch. It will also be very intriguing to see how Ohio State’s defense does if the Wolverines do not turn the ball over, for the Buckeye defense has thrived on takeaways this season. Ohio State’s secondary will continue their fantastic play, and if Manningham’s production doesn’t increase significantly for this game, then Michigan’s passing game could struggle significantly- especially if the running game is not solid for the Maize and Blue.

Advantage: Ohio State
Key Matchup: WR Mario Manningham vs. S Jamario O’Neal. This isn’t really a key matchup right now, but it could be if O’Neal lets Manningham behind him. These two were high school football stars in Ohio, O’Neal at Glenville and Manningham at Warren Harding, and they faced each other in their respective senior years. Let’s just say that if history repeats itself in the Manningham-O’Neal matchup, it’s going to be a VERY long day for Ohio State.

Intangibles
The Game is in Columbus, so that gives Ohio State an early edge. However, Michigan is sick of hearing about how much superior Ohio State is after the Buckeyes won four out of the last five games, and Michigan is ready to prove that the rivalry is not falling into the Buckeye’s control. Lamarr Woodley even said that he wants to win this game to prove all of Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr’s critics wrong.Ohio State may have the home field, but Michigan has a lot to prove, and they plan to prove themselves on Nov. 18th. Ohio State’s home crowd and more consistent quarterback carries them in this category, but only barely.

Advantage: Ohio State

If Michigan can control the crowd, stop the run and run the football effectively themselves, they have a chance to win. But if Ohio State can jump to an early lead, then they can ride the home field advantage and crowd noise all the way to Glendale for the national championship game. It will be a fun and entertaining game to watch, and it may come down to the wire. A lot is on the line in this game. For Michigan, a chance to end all doubts and erase years of disappointment against their archrival on their way to a national championship game berth. For Ohio State, an opportunity to launch themselves into the national title game, win Troy Smith a Heisman Trophy, and take unquestionable dominance in this rivalry. It’s all on the table. Michigan and Ohio State. Ohio State and Michigan. Game on.